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Anaheim DucksIan Moore
#74 · D · 6' 3" · 203 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: May 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.0 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalCold underFireFactor 59/100· model 73% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 SOG(×0.97 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season46 games
30%over
14 over · 32 under
Medium confidence95% CI 19%–45%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 32/46 | ||
| 1.5Current | 30% | 14/46 | |
| 4% | 2/46 | ||
| 0% | 0/46 | ||
| 0% | 0/46 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%11/26Medium
Away15%3/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)43%3/7Low
1 day20%3/15Medium
2 days33%2/6Low
3+ days29%5/17Medium
Last matchup — vs EDM
May 1, 2026
30thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
EDM allows 1.1 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 261 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ian Moore has gone over 1.5 SOG 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 30% across the full season. EDM has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 30th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.