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Detroit Red WingsJacob Bryson
#78 · D · 5' 9" · 177 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Providence
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.6 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.9 SOG(×1.10 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season24 games
46%over
11 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–65%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 46% | 11/24 | |
| 13% | 3/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%7/17Medium
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days50%6/12Low
Last matchup — @ UTAH
Apr 15, 2026
20thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
UTAH allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 259 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jacob Bryson has gone over 0.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. UTAH has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 20th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.