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Seattle KrakenJacob Melanson
#63 · RW · 6' 0" · 207 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.9 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJacob Melanson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Chest
- Est. return:
- Dec 1, 2026
The Kraken said that there would be a "gradual progression to return to hockey," so Melanson shouldn't be expected to play for a while. The 23-year-old suffered the injury in Seattle's Season Opener against Calgary on Oct. 1. Melanson had two goals and five points in 36 regular-season outings with the Kraken in 2025-26.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.1 SOG(×0.91 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Season14 games
64%over
9 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–84%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 9/14 | |
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs CGY
Nov 5, 2026
15thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CGY allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 96 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jacob Melanson has gone over 0.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 64% across the full season. CGY has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 15th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.