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Montreal CanadiensJake Evans
#71 · C · 6' 0" · 190 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: May 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.3 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.1 SOG(×1.04 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.7 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season32 games
59%over
19 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–74%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 59% | 19/32 | |
| 34% | 11/32 | ||
| 16% | 5/32 | ||
| 6% | 2/32 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away64%14/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%5/5Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Last matchup — @ CAR
May 30, 2026
31stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CAR allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 597 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Evans has gone over 0.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 59% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 31st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.