Calgary Flames

Kevin Bahl Assists

Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kevin Bahl has gone over 0.5 AST in 1 of his last 6 decided games (17%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 7 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksAssists · season avg 0.2 AST · PrizePicks line

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OutKevin Bahl isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Achilles Surgery
Est. return:: Sep 15, 2027

Bahl suffered the injury in pregame warmups before Friday's 5-3 loss to Anaheim. He will finish the 2026-27 campaign with one goal, one assist, 12 shots on net, 16 blocked shots and 22 hits in 16 appearances. The Flames placed Bahl on injured reserve before Sunday's matchup against Philadelphia and recalled Brayden Pachal from AHL Calgary.

Verdict

vs 0.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 16% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line26argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.2 AST(×1.02 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 106 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Last 206 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Season6 games

17%over

1 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–56%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — AST per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

1 day100%1/1Low

2 days0%0/1Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

Next matchup — vs PHI

Nov 9, 2026

14thof 32 in AST allowed to defensemen

PHI allows 0.3 AST per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 49 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Kevin Bahl has gone over 0.5 AST 1 of 6 decided times (17%) — versus 17% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 14th-most AST of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

4 books @ 0.5 AST

No-vig fair (over): 22.8%
No-vig fair (under): 77.2%

Best Over

DraftKings+350

+2.7% EV

Best Under

Hard Rock Bet-450

-5.7% EV

Model vs market (over)-6.7%

Our model puts the over at 16.1% vs the market's no-vig 22.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Assists (AST)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 AST). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 17%.