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Los Angeles KingsKevin Fiala
#22 · LW · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Feb 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.2 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKevin Fiala isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lower Leg Surgery
- Est. return:
- Oct 3, 2026
Fiala is slated to begin skating on his own next week, so he is making progress. He hasn't played since suffering the injury during the 2026 Winter Olympics. Fiala is expected to serve in a top-six capacity and will likely also be part of the first power-play unit once he's healthy.
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
3.1 SOG(×0.96 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.2 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season25 games
40%over
10 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 23/25 | ||
| 76% | 19/25 | ||
| 68% | 17/25 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 10/25 | |
| 20% | 5/25 | ||
| 16% | 4/25 | ||
| 8% | 2/25 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%6/16Medium
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day83%5/6Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days20%2/10Low
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Corey Perry out · Personal+0.4 SOG when he sits
Without (6g)
3.5 SOG
67% over 3.5
With (19g)
3.1 SOG
32% over 3.5
Next matchup — vs UTAH
Sep 23, 2026
27thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
UTAH allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 538 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kevin Fiala has gone over 3.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 40% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 27th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.