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Los Angeles KingsKevin Fiala
#22 · LW · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Feb 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.2 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.4 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.2 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season25 games
40%over
10 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 23/25 | ||
| 76% | 19/25 | ||
| 68% | 17/25 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 10/25 | |
| 20% | 5/25 | ||
| 16% | 4/25 | ||
| 8% | 2/25 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%6/16Medium
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day83%5/6Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days20%2/10Low
Last matchup — vs SEA
Feb 5, 2026
10thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
SEA allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 483 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kevin Fiala has gone over 3.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 40% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 10th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.