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Buffalo SabresKonsta Helenius
#94 · C · 5' 11" · 190 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKonsta Helenius isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Upper Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 17, 2026
Helenius has missed the last two games and didn't participate in Monday's practice. He has contributed one goal, two assists, 12 shots on net, four blocked shots and 11 hits in 11 appearances this season.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.5 SOG(×0.90 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 1.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day67%2/3Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs VGK
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
VGK allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 113 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Konsta Helenius has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. VGK has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 17th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.