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Vancouver CanucksLinus Karlsson
#94 · C · 6' 1" · 178 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 SOG(×0.96 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.4 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season27 games
48%over
13 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–66%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 20/27 | ||
| 1.5Current | 48% | 13/27 | |
| 22% | 6/27 | ||
| 7% | 2/27 | ||
| 4% | 1/27 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away53%8/15Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day63%5/8Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
Last matchup — @ EDM
Apr 17, 2026
22ndof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
EDM allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 492 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Linus Karlsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 48% across the full season. EDM has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 22nd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.