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Washington CapitalsLogan Thompson
#48 · G · 6' 4" · 207 lb · 57 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 25.4 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 24.5 SVSavesCool underFireFactor 28/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency56neutral
Projection
22.9 SV(×0.99 context)
L5 22.8 · L10 24.0 · med 23.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 20.0 · ceil 31.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season57 games
46%over
26 over · 31 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–58%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 42/57 | ||
| 67% | 38/57 | ||
| 54% | 31/57 | ||
| 24.5Current | 46% | 26/57 | |
| 42% | 24/57 | ||
| 39% | 22/57 | ||
| 33% | 19/57 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%13/32Medium
Away52%13/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day50%11/22Medium
2 days50%7/14Low
3+ days39%7/18Medium
Last matchup — vs PIT
Apr 12, 2026
13thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
PIT allows 24.8 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 86 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Logan Thompson has gone over 24.5 SV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 46% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 13th-most SV of 32 teams (24.8 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.