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Detroit Red WingsMarco Kasper
#92 · C · 6' 1" · 203 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMarco Kasper isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Upper Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 7, 2026
Kasper has been on injured reserve due to his upper-body injury since early October, but he resumed skating in a non-contact jersey last week. While he'll remain sidelined for Thursday's game against the Golden Knights, he'll likely be able to return at some point during the Red Wings' road trip that begins Saturday in Colorado and concludes Nov. 14 in Tampa Bay.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
1.8 SOG(×0.97 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 1.7 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 1.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — vs VGK
Nov 6, 2026
16thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
VGK allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 108 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Marco Kasper has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. VGK has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 16th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.