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Detroit Red WingsMason Appleton
#22 · C · 6' 2" · 193 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.3 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMason Appleton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Undisclosed Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 7, 2026
McLellan's news is encouraging for Appleton, who was placed on injured reserve following the Red Wings' second game of the season. He was first seen skating in a non-contact jersey on Friday, and has been progressing without any reported setbacks since then. Prior to going down, the 30-year-old winger compiled six hits across his two appearances. Once he's ready to return, he'll likely slot into a role on the team's fourth line. Appleton's first chance to return on the team's upcoming four-game road trip is Saturday against the Avalanche.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.1 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2011 games
27%over
3 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–57%Season11 games
27%over
3 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–57%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 1.5Current | 27% | 3/11 | |
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away11%1/9Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day0%0/4Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ COL
Nov 8, 2026
26thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 95 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mason Appleton has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 27% across the full season. COL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 26th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 27%.