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New York IslandersMatias Maccelli
#63 · LW · 5' 11" · 187 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.2 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMatias Maccelli isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lower Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 17, 2026
After suffering a lower-body injury against Toronto on Oct. 17, Maccelli has sat out the last three games. He was expected to miss 2-4 weeks, so his move to the IR list won't impact his timeline. Maccelli has earned two goals, six points and 13 shots on net in eight appearances this season.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
2.3 SOG(×0.96 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Nov 6, 2026
23rdof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CAR allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 99 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Matias Maccelli has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 23rd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.