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Pittsburgh PenguinsMatt Dumba
#24 · D · 6 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.8 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 44/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 SOG(×1.01 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
Last matchup — @ DAL
Dec 7, 2025
12thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
DAL allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 249 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Matt Dumba has gone over 0.5 SOG 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 12th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.