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New York IslandersMatthew Schaefer
#48 · D · 6' 2" · 186 lb · 34 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.9 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.2 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 3.9 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season34 games
56%over
19 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–71%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 32/34 | ||
| 76% | 26/34 | ||
| 2.5Current | 56% | 19/34 | |
| 29% | 10/34 | ||
| 12% | 4/34 | ||
| 9% | 3/34 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%11/18Medium
Away50%8/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day75%6/8Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Last matchup — vs MTL
Apr 12, 2026
8thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
MTL allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 293 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Matthew Schaefer has gone over 2.5 SOG 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 56% across the full season. MTL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 8th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.