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Toronto Maple LeafsMax Domi
#11 · C · 5' 10" · 209 lb · 45 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMax Domi isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Back Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 7, 2026
Chayka indicated last week that Domi would miss the start of training camp due to complications related to his offseason surgery, but Wednesday's update indicates that he's slated to miss all of training camp and a portion of the regular season. Domi made 80 regular-season appearances for Toronto last year, and he recorded 12 goals, 24 assists, 95 PIM, 37 hits and 35 blocked shots while averaging 14:53 of ice time.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.2 SOG(×0.87 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season45 games
47%over
21 over · 24 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–61%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 39/45 | ||
| 1.5Current | 47% | 21/45 | |
| 20% | 9/45 | ||
| 4% | 2/45 | ||
| 2% | 1/45 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%12/19Medium
Away35%9/26Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)20%1/5Low
1 day31%5/16Medium
2 days67%4/6Low
3+ days59%10/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Dakota Joshua out · Undisclosed+0.3 SOG when he sits
Without (20g)
1.8 SOG
50% over 1.5
With (25g)
1.5 SOG
44% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ OTT
Sep 23, 2026
32ndof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
OTT allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 506 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Max Domi has gone over 1.5 SOG 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. OTT has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 32nd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.