Loading…
San Jose SharksMichael Kesselring
#8 · D · 6' 5" · 215 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: May 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 SOG(×0.94 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.3 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
54%over
13 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 18/24 | ||
| 1.5Current | 54% | 13/24 | |
| 13% | 3/24 | ||
| 4% | 1/24 | ||
| 4% | 1/24 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home70%7/10Low
Away43%6/14Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day40%4/10Low
3+ days70%7/10Low
Last matchup — vs DAL
Apr 15, 2026
12thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
DAL allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 249 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Kesselring has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 54% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 12th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.