Loading…
Carolina HurricanesMike Reilly
#6 · D · 6' 2" · 191 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: May 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Minnesota
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.0 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 27/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency1argues against it
Projection
1.9 SOG(×0.96 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season26 games
62%over
16 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–78%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 24/26 | ||
| 1.5Current | 62% | 16/26 | |
| 31% | 8/26 | ||
| 8% | 2/26 | ||
| 4% | 1/26 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away60%9/15Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day60%6/10Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days64%7/11Low
Last matchup — vs PHI
May 4, 2026
28thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
PHI allows 1.2 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 289 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mike Reilly has gone over 1.5 SOG 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 62% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 28th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.