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Dallas StarsMiro Heiskanen
#4 · D · 6' 2" · 197 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: Apr 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Linepays less
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.3 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 13/100· model 77% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
2.8 SOG(×1.17 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.1 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~65% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season32 games
69%over
22 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–82%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 31/32 | ||
| 1.5Current | 69% | 22/32 | |
| 34% | 11/32 | ||
| 22% | 7/32 | ||
| 9% | 3/32 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home87%13/15Medium
Away53%9/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day43%3/7Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days77%17/22Medium
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Colin Blackwell out · Lower Body
Without (6g)
2.3 SOG
83% over 1.5
With (26g)
2.3 SOG
65% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs STL
Sep 22, 2026
6thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
STL allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 253 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Miro Heiskanen has gone over 1.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 69% across the full season. STL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 6th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.