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Philadelphia FlyersNikita Grebenkin
#29 · RW · 6' 2" · 210 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Mar 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.9 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNikita Grebenkin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Back
- Est. return:
- Feb 13, 2027
Grebenkin's upper-body injury has been revealed to be an issue with his back, which he has successfully had repaired. The 23-year-old winger is expected to miss the majority of the 2026-27 campaign, but his current timeline for return, barring any setbacks, projects him back sometime after the All-Star break in mid-February. When he does return, Grebenkin will look to build off a positive rookie campaign, where he compiled four goals, 14 points, 32 shots on net, 86 hits and 17 blocked shots across 55 regular-season outings in 2025-26.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.9 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season29 games
55%over
16 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 38%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 55% | 16/29 | |
| 17% | 5/29 | ||
| 7% | 2/29 | ||
| 3% | 1/29 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%11/20Medium
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%2/5Low
1 day67%4/6Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days62%8/13Low
Next matchup — @ CGY
Nov 9, 2026
16thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CGY allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 110 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Nikita Grebenkin has gone over 0.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. CGY has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 16th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.