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Buffalo SabresOwen Power
#25 · D · 6' 6" · 226 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 50/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.5 SOG(×1.08 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.5 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 1.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — vs CBJ
Nov 7, 2026
4thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
CBJ allows 1.6 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Owen Power has gone over 1.5 SOG 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. CBJ has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 4th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.7%
Best Over
DraftKings+120
-2.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-145
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.9%
Our model puts the over at 52.2% vs the market's no-vig 44.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.