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Anaheim DucksPetr Mrazek
#34 · G · 6' 2" · 188 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 23.2 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 22.5 SVSavesCool underFireFactor 25/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency40neutral
Projection
19.0 SV(×0.91 context)
L5 18.2 · L10 23.2 · med 22.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.8 · ceil 31.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 22.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ WSH
Jan 6, 2026
17thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
WSH allows 24.5 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 80 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Petr Mrazek has gone over 22.5 SV 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 17th-most SV of 32 teams (24.5 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.