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Philadelphia FlyersRasmus Ristolainen
#55 · D · 6' 4" · 208 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.8 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRasmus Ristolainen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hand Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 11, 2026
Ristolainen's placement on injured reserve was expected after head coach Rick Tocchet announced that the 32-year-old blueliner would miss roughly two weeks. Ristolainen had already missed nine games due to the same hand issue earlier in the season, but the injury flared back up in Saturday's clash against the Ducks. When healthy, he's been solid with a goal, five shots on net, seven hits and seven blocked shots across four appearances this season. In his absence, Cam York has been activated off injured reserve and should take on some of the minutes vacated by Ristolainen.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.3 SOG(×1.04 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 1.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day33%1/3Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ NJ
Oct 1, 2026
10thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
NJ allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 51 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rasmus Ristolainen has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. NJ has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 10th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.