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Minnesota WildRyan Hartman
#38 · RW · 6' 0" · 196 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: May 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.6 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.9 SOG(×1.04 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season25 games
56%over
14 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 23/25 | ||
| 72% | 18/25 | ||
| 2.5Current | 56% | 14/25 | |
| 28% | 7/25 | ||
| 8% | 2/25 | ||
| 4% | 1/25 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%9/14Medium
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day86%6/7Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
Last matchup — @ COL
May 14, 2026
21stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 560 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Hartman has gone over 2.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 56% across the full season. COL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.