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Washington CapitalsRyan Leonard
#9 · RW · 6' 0" · 200 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.3 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalCold underFireFactor 53/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency5argues against it
Projection
2.2 SOG(×0.96 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season36 games
33%over
12 over · 24 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–50%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 34/36 | ||
| 78% | 28/36 | ||
| 2.5Current | 33% | 12/36 | |
| 8% | 3/36 | ||
| 6% | 2/36 | ||
| 3% | 1/36 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home26%5/19Medium
Away41%7/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day42%5/12Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days39%7/18Medium
Last matchup — @ CBJ
Apr 14, 2026
9thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CBJ allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 489 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ryan Leonard has gone over 2.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. CBJ has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.