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Toronto Maple LeafsSergei Bobrovsky
#72 · G · 6' 2" · 180 lb · 49 games
Stats updated: Apr 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 16 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 21.8 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 21.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
22.7 SV(×1.01 context)
L5 22.4 · L10 23.6 · med 22.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.0 · ceil 27.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season49 games
47%over
23 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–61%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 34/49 | ||
| 59% | 29/49 | ||
| 57% | 28/49 | ||
| 21.5Current | 47% | 23/49 | |
| 47% | 23/49 | ||
| 45% | 22/49 | ||
| 39% | 19/49 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%13/26Medium
Away43%10/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day47%7/15Low
2 days50%5/10Low
3+ days45%10/22Medium
Last matchup — @ OTT
Apr 9, 2026
8thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
OTT allows 25.5 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 84 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sergei Bobrovsky has gone over 21.5 SV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. OTT has been a favorable matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 8th-most SV of 32 teams (25.5 per game). His game-to-game SV have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.