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Vancouver CanucksThatcher Demko
#35 · G · 6' 4" · 192 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 25.2 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutThatcher Demko isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- Dec 21, 2026
Demko missed the second half of the 2025-26 season after undergoing hip surgery in January, and he was officially placed on injured reserve last week. He doesn't yet have a clear timetable for when he'll be back in action, but Sedin said that Demko is "taking steps every day" in his recovery process. While Demko is sidelined, Kevin Lankinen and Leevi Merilainen should compete for starts in the Canucks' crease.
Verdict
vs 25.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency60supports it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
22.4 SV(×0.93 context)
L5 26.6 · L10 24.1 · med 25.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 23.0 · ceil 30.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 15/18 | ||
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 25.5Current | 44% | 8/18 | |
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 22% | 4/18 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days38%3/8Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Nov 10, 2026
28thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
PHI allows 21.3 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Thatcher Demko has gone over 25.5 SV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 44% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 28th-most SV of 32 teams (21.3 per game). His game-to-game SV have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.