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Vancouver CanucksTom Willander
#5 · D · 6' 1" · 180 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.8 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.2 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
58%over
14 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–76%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 58% | 14/24 | |
| 17% | 4/24 | ||
| 8% | 2/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home46%6/13Low
Away73%8/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day40%4/10Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — vs LA
Apr 15, 2026
26thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
LA allows 1.3 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 269 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tom Willander has gone over 0.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. LA has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 26th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.