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Anaheim DucksTroy Terry
#19 · RW · 6' 0" · 191 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: May 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Denver
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.1 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTroy Terry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 21, 2026
Terry underwent hip surgery in June and received a recovery timeline of 5-6 months. He still seems to be on track for a November return, but the exact date remains unclear. Terry compiled 19 goals, 57 points and 161 shots on net in 61 games during the 2025-26 regular season. Once he's ready to play, he will likely occupy a top-line role.
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
2.8 SOG(×1.01 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 3.4 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season39 games
56%over
22 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–71%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 39/39 | ||
| 82% | 32/39 | ||
| 2.5Current | 56% | 22/39 | |
| 38% | 15/39 | ||
| 15% | 6/39 | ||
| 13% | 5/39 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home59%13/22Medium
Away53%9/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%2/5Low
1 day46%6/13Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days67%10/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drew Helleson out · Lower Body+0.1 SOG when he sits
Without (9g)
3.2 SOG
56% over 2.5
With (30g)
3.1 SOG
57% over 2.5
Ian Moore out · Not Specified Lower Body Not Specified-0.7 SOG when he sits
Without (10g)
2.6 SOG
50% over 2.5
With (29g)
3.3 SOG
59% over 2.5
Next matchup — vs LA
Sep 24, 2026
14thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
LA allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 531 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Troy Terry has gone over 2.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. LA has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 14th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.