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Vegas Golden KnightsVictor Olofsson
#95 · LW · 5' 11" · 180 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.2 SOG(×0.98 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season36 games
58%over
21 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 31/36 | ||
| 1.5Current | 58% | 21/36 | |
| 33% | 12/36 | ||
| 11% | 4/36 | ||
| 8% | 3/36 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%14/21Medium
Away47%7/15Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%3/6Low
1 day60%6/10Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Last matchup — vs COL
Apr 15, 2026
21stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 560 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Victor Olofsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. COL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.