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Utah MammothVincent Trocheck
#16 · C · 5' 11" · 188 lb · 45 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.9 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 34/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.5 SOG(×1.01 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 1.6 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season45 games
64%over
29 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–77%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 37/45 | ||
| 1.5Current | 64% | 29/45 | |
| 27% | 12/45 | ||
| 9% | 4/45 | ||
| 4% | 2/45 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%14/22Medium
Away65%15/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%3/6Low
1 day77%10/13Medium
2 days69%9/13Medium
3+ days58%7/12Low
Last matchup — @ TB
Apr 15, 2026
30thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
TB allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 520 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Vincent Trocheck has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 64% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.