Ottawa Senators

Warren Foegele Assists

Stats updated: Oct 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Warren Foegele has gone over 0.5 AST in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: New Hampshire
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksAssists · season avg 0.3 AST · our line

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OutWarren Foegele isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee
Est. return:: Nov 25, 2026

The Senators moved Foegele to the injured reserve list Friday. He will miss his second straight game against San Jose on Saturday. Foegele has earned one goal, four points, 14 shots on net, five blocked shots and 18 hits in 13 appearances this season.

Verdict

vs 0.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 AST(×1.01 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — AST per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low

1 day0%0/2Low

3+ days50%1/2Low

With a teammate out

How this AST line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Andre Burakovsky out · Lower Body

Without (3g)

0.3 AST

33% over 0.5

With (3g)

0.3 AST

33% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs NYR

Oct 24, 2026

30thof 32 in AST allowed to forwards

NYR allows 0.2 AST per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 102 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Warren Foegele has gone over 0.5 AST 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. NYR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most AST of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.