Toronto Maple Leafs

William Nylander Assists

Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

William Nylander has gone over 0.5 AST in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 11 seasons

Verdict

vs 0.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 AST(×1.00 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2020 games

50%over

10 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%

Season29 games

55%over

16 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 38%–72%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	55%	16/29
	17%	5/29
	3%	1/29
	0%	0/29

Last 20 games — AST per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%7/16Medium

Away69%9/13Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low

1 day57%4/7Low

2 days25%1/4Low

3+ days69%9/13Medium

Last matchup — @ OTT

Apr 15, 2026

14thof 32 in AST allowed to forwards

OTT allows 0.3 AST per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 506 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, William Nylander has gone over 0.5 AST 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. OTT has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 14th-most AST of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.