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Buffalo SabresZach Metsa
#73 · D · 5' 9" · 180 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: May 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Quinnipiac
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.8 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 33/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 SOG(×1.05 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Season12 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 8/12 | |
| 8% | 1/12 | ||
| 8% | 1/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day50%1/2Low
3+ days63%5/8Low
Last matchup — @ MTL
May 17, 2026
8thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
MTL allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 293 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zach Metsa has gone over 0.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 67% across the full season. MTL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 8th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.