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Dallas WingsAlanna Smith
#8 · F · 6' 4" · 180 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Aug 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Stanford
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.9 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlanna Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lower Leg
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Smith suffered a lower-leg injury during the FIBA World Cup, and it sounds like she can be deemed week-to-week for the time being. Her status for the remainder of the regular season is in doubt, but she could have a chance to return for the start of the postseason in late September. Maddy Siegrist and Alysha Clark should have an opportunity for more playing time in the frontcourt going forward.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
9.5 PTS(×0.93 context)
L5 10.6 · L10 10.7 · med 10.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 13.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 9.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Azzi Fudd out · Right Knee Not Specified-1.0 PTS when he sits
Without (8g)
9.6 PTS
63% over 9.5
With (3g)
10.7 PTS
33% over 9.5
Alysha Clark out · Face+6.1 PTS when he sits
Without (3g)
14.3 PTS
100% over 9.5
With (8g)
8.3 PTS
38% over 9.5
Next matchup — @ SEA
Sep 24, 2026
13thof 15 in PTS allowed to forwards
SEA allows 9.8 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 86 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alanna Smith has gone over 9.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 13th-most PTS of 15 teams (9.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.