Loading…
Indiana FeverCaitlin Clark Steals
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Caitlin Clark has gone over 1.5 STL in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays more
Steals · season avg 1.0 STL · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Caitlin Clark's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Back
Clark has been a regular on the injury report this season due to a lingering back issue, though she hasn't missed a game since July 9 and figures to suit up Tuesday. The superstar floor general has reached the 20-point mark in five straight games, averaging 29.0 points, 9.6 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals per contest during that time.
Verdict
vs 1.5 STLStealsNo readFireFactor 3/100· model 30% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)25argues against it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.2 STL(×1.01 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2019 games
26%over
5 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 12%–49%Season19 games
26%over
5 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 12%–49%Alternate lines — Steals (STL)
STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 1.5Current | 26% | 5/19 | |
| 5% | 1/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away17%2/12Medium
Days since last game
1 day25%2/8Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days14%1/7Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 23, 2026
3rdof 15 in STL allowed to guards
MIN allows 1.1 STL per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 103 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caitlin Clark has gone over 1.5 STL 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 26% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 3rd-most STL of 15 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 26%.
More Caitlin Clark research
Caitlin Clark — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Clark Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Clark Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Clark 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Clark Blocks→
Blocks hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
WNBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.