Seattle Storm

Jordan Horston Steals

Stats updated: Aug 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jordan Horston has gone over 0.5 STL in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Tennessee
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksSteals · season avg 1.3 STL · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 STLSteals

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 61% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.2 STL(×1.05 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Season16 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Alternate lines — Steals (STL)

STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate STL line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	56%	9/16
	38%	6/16
	25%	4/16
	6%	1/16

Last 16 games — STL per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%6/8Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low

1 day67%4/6Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs IND

Jul 28, 2026

3rdof 15 in STL allowed to forwards

IND allows 1.1 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 55 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jordan Horston has gone over 0.5 STL 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most STL of 15 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.