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Phoenix MercuryKara Dunn
#12 · G · 5' 11" · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- USC
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 10.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKara Dunn isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Coach's Decision
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Dunn is signed to a developmental contract and is eligible to appear in up to 12 regular-season contests. She played in the Mercury's last four games, most recently amassing a career-high 11 points in Monday's 87-86 win over Dallas. However, the rookie won't suit up for Phoenix's final game of the year, so she will finish the 2026 campaign with averages of 6.5 points and 1.5 rebounds over 15.0 minutes in four regular-season games. Dunn also shot an efficient 57.1 percent from behind the arc.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency83supports it
Projection
10.0 PTS
L5 10.0 · L10 10.0 · med 10.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.4 · ceil 10.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs DAL
Sep 21, 2026
8thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 11.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 122 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 2 games, Kara Dunn has gone over 9.5 PTS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 8th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.