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Phoenix MercuryKara Dunn
#12 · G · 5' 11" · 1 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- USC
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 9.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Kara Dunn's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Knee
Dunn finds herself on the injury report ahead of Monday's game due to a knee injury she likely sustained in Saturday's game against the Wings. The developmental player has appeared in each of the last three games, averaging 5.0 points and 1.3 rebounds in 14.3 minutes per contest.
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 48/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency100supports it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
8.2 PTS(×0.91 context)
L5 9.0 · L10 9.0 · med 9.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 8.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Sep 22, 2026
11thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 11.6 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 122 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 1 games, Kara Dunn has gone over 8.5 PTS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 11th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.