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Seattle StormKatie Lou Samuelson
#33 · F · 6' 3" · 163 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Aug 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UConn
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 5.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKatie Lou Samuelson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Seattle's frontcourt takes another hit after losing Ezi Magbegor to a torn ACL on Thursday. Samuelson had a delayed start to the year due ACL surgery recovery, averaging 4.4 points, 2.1 rebounds and 0.8 assists in 15.3 minutes per contest over 32 games this season. The Storm should lean more heavily on Stefanie Dolson, Mackenzie Holmes and Taylor Thierry the rest of the way.
Verdict
vs 6.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency11argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
6.1 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 6.5 · med 7.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 6.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 12% | 2/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away75%6/8Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days60%6/10Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ezi Magbegor out · Lower Leg-1.7 PTS when he sits
Without (12g)
5.1 PTS
50% over 6.5
With (5g)
6.8 PTS
60% over 6.5
Next matchup — vs DAL
Sep 24, 2026
7thof 15 in PTS allowed to forwards
DAL allows 10.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 75 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Katie Lou Samuelson has gone over 6.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 15 teams (10.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.