Loading…
Phoenix MercuryKelsey Plum
#0 · G · 5' 8" · 145 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 25.3 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKelsey Plum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lower Leg
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Plum is still not feeling the effects of a lingering lower leg injury and will be shut down with the Mercury out of the playoffs. The star guard is set to become a free agent at the conclusion of the season. In five appearances with the Mercury, she averaged 15.8 points and 2.8 assists.
Verdict
vs 26.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line34argues against it
Consistency41neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
21.7 PTS(×0.89 context)
L5 23.4 · L10 25.1 · med 26.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.0 · ceil 28.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 26.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 18% | 2/11 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day100%2/2Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days20%1/5Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kahleah Copper out · Right Groin-9.0 PTS when he sits
Without (7g)
22.0 PTS
43% over 26.5
With (4g)
31.0 PTS
75% over 26.5
Jovana Nogic out · Not Injury Related-9.0 PTS when he sits
Without (6g)
21.2 PTS
33% over 26.5
With (5g)
30.2 PTS
80% over 26.5
Next matchup — vs DAL
Sep 22, 2026
12thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 11.5 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 123 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kelsey Plum has gone over 26.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.