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Toronto TempoMaria Conde Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Aug 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Maria Conde has gone over 23.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 22.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMaria Conde isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Illness
- Est. return:
- Sep 20, 2026
Conde missed the Tempo's last three games. After initially being classified as questionable for Sunday's meeting with New York, it appears there's a good chance she will return. It's unknown what kind of workload Conde will get, so Teonni Key, Temi Fagbenle and Isabelle Harrison could continue to play more minutes.
Verdict
vs 23.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency37argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
16.2 FS(×0.82 context)
L5 18.4 · L10 22.2 · med 24.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.7 · ceil 30.3
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 12/20 | ||
| 60% | 12/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 35% | 7/20 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
1 day57%4/7Low
2 days50%3/6Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brittney Sykes out · Left Foot+1.3 FS when he sits
Without (17g)
22.2 FS
53% over 23.5
With (3g)
20.9 FS
33% over 23.5
Next matchup — vs NY
Sep 20, 2026
12thof 15 in FS allowed to forwards
NY allows 21.9 FS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 72 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Maria Conde has gone over 23.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NY has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most FS of 15 teams (21.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Maria Conde research
Maria Conde — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Conde Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Conde Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Conde 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Conde Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
WNBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.