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Las Vegas AcesNaLyssa Smith
#3 · F · 6' 4" · 185 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Aug 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Baylor
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 14.7 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNaLyssa Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Leg
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
It's a big blow for the defending-champion Aces ahead of the postseason. Smith started all 38 of her appearances for Las Vegas, so a spot in the first unit is now open. Brianna Turner appears to the most likely candidate to replace Smith in the starting lineup going forward.
Verdict
vs 15.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
13.4 PTS(×0.96 context)
L5 13.2 · L10 14.6 · med 15.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.0 · ceil 18.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 11/16 | ||
| 69% | 11/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
1 day67%2/3Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 21, 2026
12thof 15 in PTS allowed to forwards
SEA allows 9.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 87 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, NaLyssa Smith has gone over 15.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 15 teams (9.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.