Portland Fire

Sarah Ashlee Barker Rebounds

Stats updated: Jul 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Sarah Ashlee Barker has gone over 4.5 REB in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Alabama
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRebounds · season avg 4.5 REB · our line

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OutSarah Ashlee Barker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery
Est. return:: May 1, 2027

Barker was helped to the locker room in the first quarter of Wednesday's loss to the Wings, and she's now been diagnosed with a season-ending injury. The second-year guard took on a significant role for the Fire after the club selected her in the 2026 WNBA Expansion Draft. Across 26 regular-season games (15 starts), the 24-year-old averaged 10.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 0.9 steals in 24.7 minutes per contest. Karlie Samuelson, Teja Oblak and Nyadiew Puoch are candidates for increased playing time in Barker's stead.

Verdict

vs 4.5 REBRebounds

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency31argues against it

Projection

4.8 REB(×1.04 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 4.5 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.8 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Season10 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Alternate lines — Rebounds (REB)

REB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	80%	8/10
	70%	7/10
4.5Current	60%	6/10
	40%	4/10
	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REB per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low

1 day100%2/2Low

3+ days60%3/5Low

Last matchup — @ MIN

Jul 19, 2026

11thof 15 in REB allowed to guards

MIN allows 2.6 REB per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 81 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Sarah Ashlee Barker has gone over 4.5 REB 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 11th-most REB of 15 teams (2.6 per game). His game-to-game REB have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.