CFB FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Showing all leans — 47 of 96 landed (49%).
Nov 7, 2026
20 of 45 landed- ✗Matt WagnerO 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Cooper BarkateO 3.5 RECgot 10
- ✗Griffin WildeO 5.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Braylon StaleyO 38.5 REC YDSgot 50
- ✗Isaiah HortonU 3.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Jeremiah CobbU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Darian MensahU 3.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗Chauncy CobbU 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Byrum BrownU 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✓Mike MatthewsU 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Patrick OvermyerO 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Javen JacobsU 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Sean WilsonO 5.5 RECgot 6
- ✓Dierre Hill Jr.O 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Drake LindseyU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✗Clay TheveninO 12.5 FSgot 4.8
- ✗CJ BaileyO 1.5 PASS TDgot 0
- ✗Antwan RaymondO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Elija LoftonO 2.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Jaylen RaynorU 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✓Rayshon LukeO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Dylan RileyU 149.5 RUSH YDSgot 192
- ✓Jaquari LewisU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Ja'Vin SimpkinsU 3.5 FSgot 17.4
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissU 2.5 PASS TDgot 0
- ✗Carlos HernandezO 7.5 RECgot 4
- ✓JC French IVO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Junior SherrillU 6.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Drew MestemakerU 3.5 PASS TDgot 4
- ✗Cayden LeeU 6.5 RECgot 9
- ✓Bear BachmeierO 223.5 PASS YDSgot 272
- ✓Kenny JohnsonO 14.5 FSgot 25.4
- ✓Marcel ReedO 169.5 PASS YDSgot 251
- ✓Arch ManningO 19.5 FSgot 23.78
- ✗Isaiah Sategna IIIO 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Jeremiah HasleyU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Viron Ellison Jr.U 5.5 FSgot 11.5
- ✗Cale HellumsO 22.5 FSgot 9.92
- ✗Conner WeigmanO 27.5 FSgot 26.08
- ✗Bo JacksonO 72.5 RUSH YDSgot 48
- ✓Caleb HawkinsO 23.5 FSgot 54.6
- ✗Gunner StocktonO 233.5 PASS YDSgot 186
- ✓Makhilyn YoungO 5.5 FSgot 6.3
- ✓Sedrick AlexanderO 1.5 RECgot 3
- ✗DeSean BishopO 129.5 RUSH YDSgot 109
Nov 6, 2026
2 of 4 landed- ✓Noah FifitaU 2.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Isaiah MozeeU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Anthony ColandreaO 229.5 PASS YDSgot 284
- ✗Kevin JenningsU 2.5 PASS TDgot 4
Nov 5, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 4
Oct 31, 2026
21 of 43 landed- ✓Elija LoftonO 25.5 REC YDSgot 48
- ✓Mark Fletcher Jr.U 89.5 RUSH YDSgot 43
- ✗Malachi ToneyO 104.5 REC YDSgot 75
- ✗Jayden MaiavaO 245.5 PASS YDSgot 222
- ✓Drew MestemakerO 291.5 PASS YDSgot 323
- ✗Jeremiah SmithO 93.5 REC YDSgot 83
- ✗Jaylen RaynorU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗Bo JacksonU 87.5 RUSH YDSgot 121
- ✗Ryan WingoO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Cooper BarkateO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Darian MensahO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Arch ManningU 235.5 PASS YDSgot 220
- ✗Deuce AlexanderO 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Antwan RaymondO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Gunner StocktonO 19.5 FSgot 8.54
- ✗Jamal RobertsU 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Dierre Hill Jr.O 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓T.J. MooreU 47.5 REC YDSgot 36
- ✓Byrum BrownU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Jaquari LewisU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Drake LindseyU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Noah FifitaO 296.5 PASS YDSgot 417
- ✓CJ BaileyO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✓Charlie BeckerO 23.5 FSgot 28.9
- ✓Chase HendricksO 15.5 FSgot 19.7
- ✗J'Koby WilliamsO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Kendrick RaphaelU 1.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissO 249.5 PASS YDSgot 263
- ✓Brad JacksonO 212.5 PASS YDSgot 327
- ✓Griffin WildeU 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Jeremiah CobbU 9.5 FSgot 4.4
- ✗Isaiah MozeeU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Javen JacobsU 15.5 FSgot 15.1
- ✓Bear BachmeierO 223.5 PASS YDSgot 236
- ✗Anthony ColandreaO 22.5 FSgot 13.2
- ✓JC French IVU 25.5 FSgot 15.32
- ✗Cayden LeeO 81.5 REC YDSgot 78
- ✗Matt WagnerU 4.5 RECgot 6
- ✗Ja'Vin SimpkinsO 30.5 RUSH YDSgot 9
- ✗Jalen BuckleyO 91.5 RUSH YDSgot 77
- ✗Dylan RileyO 23.5 FSgot 18.1
- ✗Collin DixonO 6.5 RECgot 6
- ✗Nate SheppardU 35.5 FSgot 43.9
Oct 30, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Anthony Brown-StephensO 2.5 RECgot 5
Oct 28, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Caden CreelO 24.5 FSgot 33.46
Oct 27, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Sean WilsonO 4.5 RECgot 9
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.