California Golden Bears

Adam Mohammed Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Adam Mohammed has gone over 49.5 REC YDS in 1 of his last 9 decided games (11%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: California
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

2.2×

DK Pick6Receiving Yards · season avg 27.1 REC YDS · DK Pick6 line

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DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.

Verdict

vs 49.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 2/100· model 25% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)11argues against it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

37.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)

L5 32.6 · L10 27.1 · med 18.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 11.2 · ceil 41.2

Matchup

small sample

Scored against this payout variant's ~23% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Last 209 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Season9 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Last 9 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 49.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 49.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away0%0/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days13%1/8Medium

Next matchup — vs CLEM

Sep 26, 2026

123rdof 228 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

CLEM allows 6.3 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Adam Mohammed has gone over 49.5 REC YDS 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. CLEM has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 123rd-most REC YDS of 228 teams (6.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 22.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 24.5 REC YDS

No-vig fair (over): 50.0%
No-vig fair (under): 50.0%

Best Over

FanDuel-114

-6.1% EV

Best Under

FanDuel-114

-6.1% EV

Model vs market (over)-25.0%

Our model puts the over at 25.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (19.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.