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Florida State SeminolesAshton Daniels
#14 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 5 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 5 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 209.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 202.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsCool underFireFactor 22/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
202.9 PASS YDS
L5 209.4 · L10 209.4 · med 202.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 121.6 · ceil 277.8
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 202.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 202.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 5 games, Ashton Daniels has gone over 202.5 PASS YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 90.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 202.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-4.9% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.6%
Our model puts the over at 47.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (202.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.