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Liberty FlamesAustin Henderson
#83 · TE · 6' 5" · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 15.2 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency3argues against it
Projection
11.7 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 15.2 · med 13.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.0 · ceil 20.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Last matchup — vs KENN
Nov 29, 2025
27thof 223 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
KENN allows 28.7 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Austin Henderson has gone over 13.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KENN has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 223 teams (28.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.