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Texas State BobcatsBeau Sparks
#11 · WR · 5' 11" · 175 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Texas State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 98.6 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 77.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
90.6 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 93.8 · L10 100.3 · med 74.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 67.0 · ceil 155.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 77.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 77.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs RICE
Jan 2, 2026
42ndof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
RICE allows 56.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Beau Sparks has gone over 77.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. RICE has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 42nd-most REC YDS of 233 teams (56.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 44.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.