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UCLA BruinsBrayden Loftin
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 231 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UCLA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 11.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 29/100· model 36% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line36argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
15.0 REC YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 11.7 · med 9.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.6 · ceil 16.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 9.5Current | 29% | 2/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days17%1/6Low
Next matchup — @ MD
Sep 26, 2026
62ndof 216 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MD allows 26.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Brayden Loftin has gone over 9.5 REC YDS 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. MD has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 62nd-most REC YDS of 216 teams (26.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.