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Texas Tech Red RaidersBryson Jones
#85 · WR · 6' 3" · 180 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Nov 15, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 25.3 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 22/100· model 32% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.2 REC YDS
L5 25.3 · L10 25.3 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 13.0 · ceil 35.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 13.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs UCF
Nov 15, 2025
161stof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
UCF allows 42.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Bryson Jones has gone over 13.5 REC YDS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. UCF has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 161st-most REC YDS of 233 teams (42.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.