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UCF KnightsCaden Piening
#18 · TE · 6' 5" · 245 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UCF
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line1.3×
Receiving Yards · season avg 34.6 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 29.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsHot overFireFactor 65/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
32.1 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 34.6 · L10 34.6 · med 30.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 28.0 · ceil 36.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~38% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Situational splits
Over 29.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ KU
Nov 7, 2026
118thof 224 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
KU allows 20.7 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Caden Piening has gone over 29.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. KU has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 118th-most REC YDS of 224 teams (20.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 12.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.